US Infrastructure Spend: Regional Winners for Scrap

Introduction: The Billions Behind the Blueprint

The United States is experiencing an infrastructure renaissance on a level not witnessed since the postwar era. Catalyzed by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s $1.2 trillion commitment, the nation is not only rebuilding its highways, bridges, airports, and digital networks—it's also transforming the core supply chains that enable American manufacturing. For the scrap metal market, this is not just a passing policy headline; it is a generational inflection point.

The impact reverberates through every link of the metals value chain. Scrap steel, aluminum, and copper are integral raw materials, and as the US pivots toward modern, sustainable construction, the demand for these recycled resources is set to skyrocket. From legacy foundries in the Midwest to new-energy hubs across the Sunbelt, stakeholders who grasp the nuances of regional demand will outperform those relying on outdated models.

But where exactly are the new centers of gravity? Which states, cities, and industrial corridors are emerging as strategic players—or buyers—of scrap? Importantly, how can stakeholders position themselves to profit from these tectonic shifts in procurement, policy, and regional logistics?

This expanded guide delivers deep market intelligence, granular regional analysis, and actionable playbooks for both buyers and sellers of scrap in the era of US infrastructure expansion.

Market Drivers: Why Infrastructure Spending is Fueling Scrap Demand

Understanding the core catalysts behind rising scrap demand grounds every commercial and policy decision in this space. Below, we dissect four drivers reshaping market dynamics.

1. Elevated Steel and Metals Consumption

Steel Demand Surge:

According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), the infrastructure law is set to boost annual US steel consumption by an estimated 5% through 2028. Over 70% of new domestic steel capacity now comes from electric arc furnaces (EAFs), which rely on scrap steel as their chief feedstock. This transition is shifting the raw materials paradigm away from traditional, coal-intensive blast furnaces to cleaner, scrap-centric EAFs—an evolution propelled by both economics and ESG imperatives.

Aluminum and Copper’s Role in the Grid:

With over $65 billion earmarked for nationwide power grid modernization and $7.5 billion dedicated to electric vehicle charging stations, the demand for high-purity aluminum and copper is unprecedented. Aluminum’s lightweight strength makes it invaluable for bridges and high-speed rail, while copper is the backbone of everything from transformers to EV infrastructure. The secondary market, or recycled scrap inputs, is critical: The Copper Development Association estimates that scrap provides nearly 37% of the US copper supply—an attribute both eco-friendly and cost-effective.

Case Study:

A leading Midwest steel mini-mill recently reported a 15% year-over-year increase in scrap intake directly attributable to nearby infrastructure developments and public-private transit investments.

2. Government Policy and Local Content

Buy America Mandates:

Federal infrastructure contracts increasingly hinge on “Buy America” and “Build America, Buy America” requirements, which prioritize domestic and recycled content. These mandates fundamentally shift project material sourcing toward US-based processors. As a result, many regional projects now specify recycled metal percentages in their bids, forcing supply chains to adapt quickly.

Incentives for Recycled Inputs:

States like California, Illinois, and New York are enacting procurement rules requiring or incentivizing the use of scrap-based steel or copper. Such legislation accelerates the shift toward in-region sourcing and boosts demand for verified recycled grades.

3. Environmental and Cost Pressures

Decarbonization Benchmarks:

Producing steel via EAFs, utilizing scrap, reduces CO₂ emissions by up to 75% compared to primary blast furnace processes, according to the World Steel Association. This aligns US producers with global carbon-neutral targets—critical as investors and regulators scrutinize scope 3 emissions.

Economic Resilience:

Energy price shocks and global logistics disruptions have exposed the vulnerabilities of primary metal supply chains. Local scrap provides a buffer—offering price stability, security of supply, and lower transportation overhead.

Statistical Viewpoint:

In 2023 alone, recycled metals displaced over 30 million tons of CO₂ emissions in the US manufacturing sector, outpacing most other decarbonization levers in industrial verticals.

4. Regional Procurement Strategies

Incentivizing Local Sourcing:

State and municipal agencies increasingly prefer or require local content to maximize economic impact, job creation, and project accountability. This regional approach disrupts historic east-west or exporter-focused flows, creating new scrap collection, processing, and consumption hubs.

Illustrative Example:

Ohio’s $2 billion bridge rehabilitation program stipulates not only US-sourced steel, but also traceable scrap content—forcing suppliers to adjust their origination and processing capabilities accordingly.

Regional Scenario Analysis: Mapping the Scrap Winners & Hotspots

Infrastructure spending is not distributed evenly. These four regions stand out for their distinctive dynamics—and potential for scrap market outperformance.

The Midwest: The Heartland Roars Back

Key Regional Attributes:

- Legacy Manufacturing Base: The Midwest’s long-standing role as an industrial powerhouse means dense concentrations of scrap suppliers, processors, and finished steel producers. Cities like Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Chicago host more than 40% of the nation’s mini-mills.

- Scale of Projects: A 2023 report by the Brookings Institution highlighted that Rust Belt states have collectively secured over $300 billion for steel-intensive infrastructure, including interstate highways, rail modernization, and public transit redevelopment.

- Efficient Rail and River Networks: The presence of major waterways and rail lines optimizes short-haul movement, reducing freight costs and enabling just-in-time scrap deliveries.

Industry Insight:

Local scrap processors in Indiana and Ohio report spot price increases of 7–10% over the past year due to proximity premiums and surging project demand.

Strategic Impacts:

Sellers in the Midwest leverage location, speed, and scale. Buyers, however, must contend with tightening supply and increased regional competition—requiring creative sourcing strategies and relationship-driven procurement.

The Sunbelt: Fast-Growing Demand in the South and Southwest

Key Regional Attributes:

- Demographic Tailwinds: With Texas and Florida ranking first and third in state-level infrastructure outlays, the Sunbelt enjoys federal support matched to rapid urban and economic growth.

- Emergence of Greenfield Scrap Consumers: Steel Dynamics, Nucor, and Novelis have announced or begun operations at new EAF and remelt facilities in Texas, Alabama, and Georgia, reflecting a migration of metals manufacturing capacity to lower-cost, high-growth states.

- Industrial Scrap Generation: The automotive, aerospace, and clean tech industries are booming, confirmed by the 40% increase in Texas’ industrial scrap volumes since 2020 (per USGS data).

Future Trends:

Analysts project that up to 25% of incremental US scrap demand growth through 2030 will emerge from the Sunbelt, with direct implications for logistics providers and scrap processors.

Marketplace Impact:

Sellers gain leverage through grade quality and proximity, commanding higher prices. Buyers entering or expanding in the Sunbelt will need robust local sourcing networks and adaptive logistics to ensure steady supply amid layout dense urban expansion.

Coastal Corridors and Port States: Gateways for Scrap and Steel Flows

If the Midwest and Sunbelt are the workhorses of US infrastructure-led metals demand, coastal and port states are the valves that regulate flow. The same laws that rebuild highways and bridges are quietly rewriting the economics of ports, rail hubs, and land border crossings. For scrap markets, that means higher intensity of demand at the water’s edge and a new balance between exports and domestic melt.

The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law commits more than 16.7 billion dollars to coastal ports, inland waterways, and land ports of entry, including locks, terminals, and navigation channels. This funding runs through agencies such as the US Army Corps of Engineers and the Department of Transportation. It includes competitive grants under the Port Infrastructure Development Program, which received 2.25 billion dollars over five years, with 450 million dollars made available for fiscal year 2025 alone. Federal notices of funding opportunity regularly offer hundreds of millions of dollars per round for port projects. These funds sit on top of state and private capital plans that use federal support as a base. GFOA+1

Case by case, you can see how this translates into steel, aluminum, and copper demand. In Georgia, for example, the Port of Brunswick secured a 15 million dollar grant from the infrastructure law to build a new 540 foot dock, replace aging structures, install upgraded utilities, and dredge berths to handle larger ships. The grant covers roughly half of a broader project that includes over 260 million dollars in additional upgrades and channel deepening. Every one of those docks, fenders, mooring dolphins, and cranes relies on long steel, plate, and reinforcement that is increasingly supplied by EAF mills that consume scrap. AP News+1

The Southeast offers a clear example of ports and scrap processing moving in tandem. In 2025, Aurubis began production at an 800 million dollar copper recycling and metallurgical plant in Richmond County, Georgia. The facility will process up to 180,000 metric tons of complex scrap per year, including printed circuit boards and copper cables, and will produce around 70,000 tons of blister copper at 98 to 99 percent purity. The plant mainly targets US customers and aims to cut reliance on imported copper metal, which still covers about half of US demand. Its siting in a port-centric logistics region is not an accident. It reduces inbound and outbound freight, improves access to export channels if needed, and ties regional infrastructure spending on grid upgrades and industrial sites directly to higher local appetite for copper and mixed scrap. Reuters+1

On the Gulf and West Coasts, public money is transforming ports into heavy consumers of both structural steel and electrical metals. Beyond the infrastructure law, the Inflation Reduction Act is providing nearly 3 billion dollars to upgrade port equipment and infrastructure across 55 US ports, funding electric cranes, yard tractors, shore power, and substation work. Recent awards include 147 million dollars for the Port of Baltimore, significant allocations to ports such as Los Angeles and New York, and tens of millions for emissions reduction at Pacific and Gulf ports. AP News+1 The Port of San Diego alone secured nearly 60 million dollars for its Clean Cargo Project, which will electrify cargo handling equipment and expand grid connections. Axios The Port of Corpus Christi received 105 million dollars from EPA clean ports funds for zero emission equipment and infrastructure, reflecting how Gulf ports are aligning air quality, logistics, and metals demand. Wikipedia+1

These projects sit on top of a scrap system that already recycles 60 to 80 million tons of steel in the United States each year and has exported more than 14 million tons of ferrous scrap in recent years, with Turkey and Mexico as the largest buyers. Short Span Steel Bridges+2Recycling Today+2 Infrastructure investment and new EAF capacity tighten this picture. US steel now relies on electric arc furnaces for more than 70 percent of its output, with estimates putting the share at around 71.8 percent in 2024. That makes the United States one of the most scrap-intensive steel producers in the world. Reuters As new furnaces come online in coastal or near-port states, including projects like ArcelorMittal’s EAF at Calvert, Alabama, port regions become both importers of semi-finished steel and intense consumers of scrap grades that can feed low carbon production. Reuters

On the nonferrous side, policy is already starting to redirect exports back toward domestic users. The United States plans to restrict copper scrap exports from 2027 and require that at least 25 percent of high quality scrap be retained for domestic use. In 2024, US recyclers generated roughly 870,000 tons of copper from scrap but exported almost 957,000 tons of copper scrap, more than 40 percent of which went to China. If even a fraction of that tonnage remains onshore, port-adjacent shredders, sorters, and smelters in states such as Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, and California will see both higher volumes and stricter quality expectations from grid, EV, and infrastructure buyers. Reuters

For scrap sellers in port states, this environment rewards sophistication. The winners will be yards and regional processors that can supply certified grades, trace recycled content, and deliver consistent lots into both export and domestic channels. They will invest in better nonferrous separation, residual control, and data capture. Traders will need to track changing arbitrage between export prices to Turkey, Mexico, and Asia on one hand, and domestic bids from EAFs, foundries, and copper refiners on the other, as exports of US ferrous scrap have already fallen by close to 9 percent since 2023 while domestic infrastructure contracts keep climbing. Recycling Today+2Short Span Steel Bridges+2

For buyers such as mills, service centers, and rebar fabricators, the port corridor becomes a place to lock in long term partnerships. Multi year contracts linked to infrastructure indices, rather than spot benchmarks alone, will help secure the scrap needed for bridges, terminals, and grid upgrades. Public agencies can reinforce this by requiring traceable recycled content and clear emissions reporting in procurement, which favors suppliers who already invested in measurement and certification.

Conclusion: Turning Federal Dollars into Scrap Market Strategy

US infrastructure spending is not a one year sugar high. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law provides 973 billion dollars in funding from 2022 through 2026, including 550 billion dollars in new investments. National Association of Counties+1 That headline number is now showing up in the order books. State and local governments awarded 22.2 billion dollars of highway and bridge contracts in the first months of 2025, up from 18.8 billion dollars in the same period of 2024. Short Span Steel Bridges At the same time, new rail corridors, ports, and power projects are moving through planning programs such as the Corridor ID rail initiative and competitive grant rounds for ports, bridges, and freight corridors. maritime.dot.gov+3Wikipedia+3Department of Transportation+3

On the metals side, this coincides with a structural shift toward scrap based production. The United States now produces the majority of its steel through EAFs, with global data putting the US share at over 70 percent, far above the global average near 30 percent. Reuters+1 The American steel industry recycles tens of millions of tons of scrap each year, and secondary production has become the dominant source for aluminum, accounting for roughly 78 percent of US aluminum production by 2021. Short Span Steel Bridges+1 Recycling steel cuts emissions by around 58 percent compared with ore based production, and recycling aluminum can save up to 95 percent of the energy and 10 tons of CO₂ per ton of metal. Across metals, EPA estimates indicate that US metal recycling avoids about 29 million tons of CO₂ per year, while global estimates put the savings near 500 million tons annually. Okon Recycling+2alliedsalvagemetals.ca+2 In other words, scrap is no longer a side stream; it is central to meeting both production and climate targets.

For yards and regional processors, the message is clear. Infrastructure spending will amplify local demand in regions that already have strong industrial bases or logistics advantages. In the Midwest, proximity to mini mills and bridge programs translates into tighter markets and better spreads for prompt and obsolete grades, but also higher competition for tonnage. In the Sunbelt, rapid construction, new EAF capacity, and clean energy manufacturing mean that yards able to feed both industrial and demolition streams into predictable supply chains will gain pricing power. Along coastal and inland ports, the combination of export options, EAF buildout, and new copper and aluminum recycling capacity will reward those who can navigate shifting export controls and provide quality that meets both domestic and foreign standards.

For mills, foundries, and service centers, the opportunity lies in planning ahead of the project cycle. Many infrastructure jobs ramp over three to five years. That gives time to model scrap needs by region, grade, and project type. A mill that maps federal awards for bridges, rail, and ports against its own furnace mix, charge recipes, and logistics capacity can forecast when to add shredding partnerships, when to support yard upgrades with offtake agreements, and when to adjust purchasing strategies toward specific grades such as shredded, heavy melt, busheling, or high conductivity copper. Using procurement rules that reward documented recycled content and lower emissions intensity will also help win public contracts that carry “Buy America” language and emissions expectations. American Iron and Steel Institute+2Brookings+2

For traders and intermediaries, the landscape is becoming more complex but also more interesting. US ferrous scrap exports have fallen over the last three years, even as specific routes such as exports to Turkey remain strong. Recycling Today+2mepsinternational.com+2 On the nonferrous side, possible export limits on copper scrap and political attention on aluminum scrap flows create regulatory risk, especially when combined with higher tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. Reuters+2Reuters+2 Traders who track award databases for infrastructure grants, follow regulatory changes on exports, and build supply from under-appreciated sources such as demolition waves, repowering projects, and appliance replacement cycles will be better placed than those who only respond to monthly price moves.

Public agencies, cities, and utilities also have a stake. Their ability to complete projects on time and within budget depends on stable supply of low carbon steel, aluminum, and copper. Aligning procurement specifications with realistic scrap supply, supporting investment in regional processing capacity, and sharing project pipelines with local industry can de-risk both cost and schedule. When agencies coordinate with mills and scrap suppliers on timing and technical standards, they reduce the risk of bottlenecks that might otherwise slow down bridge work, substation upgrades, or transit extensions.

If you view the US infrastructure cycle as a map, the contours are already visible. A steel and scrap intensive heartland across the Midwest. High growth Sunbelt corridors that combine construction, manufacturing, and new EAFs. Coastal and port states that balance domestic demand with export opportunities, especially in copper and aluminum. For serious participants in the scrap and metals markets, this guide should serve as a live reference. Update it as new awards are announced, as export rules change, and as EAF capacity ramps. The players who treat infrastructure spending, regional metals demand, and scrap flows as a connected system will get ahead of their peers and stay there as this build-out continues through the decade.